This is the question where trust matters most, because the person answering it often profits from one answer. Our company was founded on 'no upsells,' so here's the exact framework we use in your living room — the same one we'd use for family.
The $5,000 rule (and its limits)
The industry shorthand: multiply the repair cost by the system's age. Under $5,000, repair. Over, replace. A $400 capacitor on a 9-year-old system scores 3,600 — fix it. A $1,800 coil on a 13-year-old system scores 23,400 — that money belongs in a new system.
It's a good gut-check, not gospel. It doesn't know your system's maintenance history, whether the failure is isolated or systemic, or your plans for the house. Treat it as the opening move, not the verdict.
Factors that push toward repair
- The system is under 10 years old — Texas systems live 12–15 years with maintenance.
- The failure is a known consumable: capacitors, contactors, fan motors, drain issues.
- It's the system's first significant repair, and it's been maintained.
- You may sell the home within a couple of years (a working system sells; buyers rarely pay extra for a new one).
Factors that push toward replacement
- Compressor or evaporator coil failure on a 10+ year system — the two repairs that approach replacement cost.
- This is the second major repair in two seasons; failures cluster at end of life.
- Bills climbing every summer — old equipment loses efficiency as it wears.
- Comfort problems the old system never solved: humidity, hot rooms, noise.
- The refrigerant factor: the industry is transitioning to new A2L refrigerants. R-410A isn't banned for existing systems, but parts and refrigerant costs for older equipment will follow the same rising curve R-22 owners remember.
The question to ask any contractor
Ask: "Would you repair this if it were your house?" — then watch how specific the answer is. An honest tech will show you the failed part, give you both prices, and explain their reasoning in terms of your system's actual condition. If everything is somehow always a replacement, or the 'free estimate' can't leave without a signed contract, get a second opinion. We're happy to be that second opinion; no pressure, ever — that's the point of the company.
From the team at Strike Force HVAC
Wrestling with this decision? We'll give you both numbers and an honest recommendation — free.